NBA: Don't forget about Utah.
The Jazz may not be the top seed, but they're more than ready to shock anyone who makes the mistake of underestimating them.
I’ve spent plenty of time talking about the Warriors and the Suns, but what about the other team in the West with a better record than anyone else in the league aside from those two? It’s time to talk Jazz.
Last year, Utah finished 52-20, with the best record in the NBA. But even though they dispatched the Grizzlies in five games, Utah was embarrassed in the second round by the Clippers, who took four games in a row after going down 0-2 to start the series. What was worse was that LA lost two-time Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard after they evened the series 2-2, and still managed to close out the series on an incredibly hot streak from the whole team.
Over those final four games the Jazz were outscored by an average of 15 points per game, and they let the Clippers connect on a ridiculous 46% of their attempts from deep while inducing fewer than 9 turnovers per game. That series marked the fifth consecutive playoffs where Utah has given up three or more losses in a row, and in four of those five campaigns they were eliminated with three or more losses in their final contests.
The Jazz have won 63% of their regular season games over the last five seasons and have made it to the second round of the playoffs three times. But they haven’t demonstrated a consistent ability to close out (or sometimes to even contest) an important series. As a result, it’s not the easiest task to convince yourself that they will show up when it counts.
Nevertheless, it’s hard to be a pessimist when you look at what the 2021-22 Jazz have done so far.
Utah is 17-7, which would be the best record in the East but has them third in the West behind current favorites Golden State (21-4) and Phoenix (20-4). But even though they’re currently the third seed, FiveThirtyEight projects the Jazz to finish with a better record (57-25) than last year, and currently gives Utah the second best odds to both make and win the Finals behind only the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.
That’s because Utah as a team is at or near the top of the league in a whole lot of important categories. For starters, they have the best offense in the league, scoring 116.7 points per 100 possessions. The Jazz have the same gap between them and the second-ranked Hawks that Atlanta has between them and the seventh-ranked Heat.
What’s really remarkable is that while the rest of the league has slowed down on offense, the Jazz are right around the same mark they set last year (which gave them just the seventh best offense in the 2020-21 season). Further, at +9.1, Utah is the only team even sniffing the ridiculous +11.7 net rating that the Warriors have posted so far.
Of the teams with the ten best net ratings in the league, only Utah, Golden State, Phoenix, and Brooklyn are in the top ten for both offense and defense, which is usually a pretty reliable indicator of which teams will be able to hold it down in the playoffs when things get harder. Utah also plays at a relatively slow pace (possessions per 48 minutes) compared to the other top teams, which is a good sign that they’ll still be able to score when the game slows down in the spring.
They are top-three in the league for field goal percentage, three point percentage, two point percentage, and points per game even though they make fewer total field goals per game than the Spurs, Hornets, Lakers, Suns, Grizzlies, and Hawks. And on the other end of the court, they allow the fourth-lowest effective field goal percentage in the league.
All those team stats reflect the fact that the Jazz benefit from contributions up and down the roster.
Three-time Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert is, to put it simply, still quite good. Gobert is currently setting career-highs in field goal percentage and rebounding, he’s knocking down a ridiculous 81.7% of his attempts within three feet of the basket, plus 78% of his shots at the rim, and on the other side of the ball he has the fourth-best defensive plus/minus in the league. As the anchor of Utah’s physical presence in the paint on both ends of the floor, the Stifle Tower leads all qualified players in defensive rebounding rate, and he’s in the top 5% for blocking rate.
Meanwhile, fifth-year shooting guard Donovan Mitchell is still rounding into form. After connecting on 38.6% of his threes last year, Mitchell is down to just 34.1% this season, his worst mark since his rookie season. But, on the other hand, he is making a career best 55% of his twos, including 59% of his attempts at the rim and 50% of his shots from midrange.
Mitchell’s +5.2 estimated plus/minus is in the top two percent of all players, and aside from his three-point shooting he’s made improvements in just about every other category. And given that he’s taking almost as many threes as anyone else in the league, if he can start knocking them down at a rate closer to his career average he will be an even more potent force on offense.
The other half of Utah’s backcourt is veteran point guard Mike Conley, who is in his third season with the Jazz after 12 seasons in Memphis. While Mitchell is struggling from deep, Conley is connecting on an unbelievable 47.6% of his attempts from beyond the arc. He’s also set personal bests in two point shooting, connecting on 52% of his midrange attempts and 63% of his shots at the rim, plus he’s assisted on over 28% of Utah’s baskets while on the floor. That’s pretty fantastic production for a guy who turned 34 in October and hadn’t made an All-Star team until being selected as a replacement last year.
The rest of Utah’s most used players are all making valuable contributions in their own ways. Further, a number of them are underperforming, so if the Jazz get better play out of them as the season goes on they should feel pretty good about their roster.
Jordan Clarkson, last year’s Sixth Man of the Year, has declined after a historic campaign last season. He’s only making 30% of his threes, down from 35.6% over the last two seasons, and he’s shooting below 50% on twos for the first time since the 2015-16 season. Over his last two campaigns, Clarkson set his career best in offensive plus/minus thanks to career highs in shooting at the rim, midrange, beyond the arc, and at the charity stripe. If he had just been excellent last year, it might be reasonable to expect this kind of regression. But given that his improved performance has occurred over multiple seasons, it seems fair to count on Clarkson regaining at least some of last year’s brilliance.
Joe Ingles, who finished second to Clarkson in last year’s sixth-man voting, has also slowed down a bit. For starters, he’s playing fewer minutes this season than in any of the previous four, and at age 34 he’s become a bit more of a liability on defense, posting the first negative defensive plus/minus of his career so far this season. But he’s still making 42% of his threes, a career-best 67% of his twos, and he’s assisting on 18% of Jazz baskets while on the floor. He’s also taking the fewest shots since 2017, so it’s not terribly surprising that his averages have dipped. If the Jazz keep winning the way they are without him, Ingles can be a luxury and not a necessity.
Like Ingles, forward Bojan Bogdanović has been more of a defensive liability than in years past, but he’s still an asset on offense, knocking down 41% of his threes and 62% of his attempts at the rim. He’s also logging a personal best offensive plus/minus, which has helped to mitigate his defensive issues.
Another key element of Utah’s roster is Royce O’Neale, who has been with the Jazz since his debut in the fall of 2017. This season, he’s knocking down more shots than ever from deep and at the rim, and he’s been a key defensive asset alongside Gobert for a long time now. Head coach Quin Snyder trusts O’Neale to hold his own against elite wings like Kawhi Leonard and LeBron James, and given that his offense has improved year after year it’s hard to imagine him not playing a significant role in any successful Jazz campaign.
Then there are the new additions to the team—Rudy Gay and Hassan Whiteside.
Gay has the potential to be an asset on both sides of the ball. In four seasons with the Spurs, he was a consistent plus on defense, and this year he’s posting his best offensive plus/minus since the 2014-15 season with Sacramento. While he missed the first 14 games of the season, in the ten games since he returned he has made 23 of 53 attempts from deep and 9 of 12 at the rim.
Whiteside, who is on his fourth team in four seasons, has the potential to be a real defensive plus if he puts his mind to it. And coach Snyder seems intent on using him, since he’s played in 22 of their 24 games so far. In those minutes, opposing players are shooting 12.5% worse than their averages within six feet of the basket. He’s also in the top five percent in both offensive and defensive rebounding percentage, and the top two percent of all players in blocking rate. Even though the Jazz are going to have Gobert on the floor for all of their most crucial defensive possessions, having Whiteside as a stopgap is key to making sure that Rudy is rested for the most important minutes.
Honorable mention goes to Eric Paschall, who played in Golden State the last two seasons. While he’s probably finding it strange to adjust to fewer minutes than he got during the no-Klay experiment years with the Warriors, he’s played in 20 of their 24 games and is doing okay in those minutes. He’s attempting a lot more threes as a share of his total shots than he had before, which is partially why his shooting numbers are worse than they were entering the season, but he’s also making a career best 67% of his shots both at the rim and from midrange. I’m not sure if he’s taking more threes just because that’s what the Jazz do, but after taking more than 80% of his shots inside the arc with the Warriors, now less than 40% of his tries are twos and a ridiculous 64% of his attempts are threes.
The bottom line is this: despite the fact that their market doesn’t get much attention, and even though they don’t have a conventional superstar (yet—don’t tell Donovan Mitchell), the Jazz are at least one of the top five teams in the league.
Utah has depth, experience, and most importantly they’re working with a set of guys who have played together for multiple years. They trust Quin Snyder to lead them, and they trust each other to work together to get where they want to go. Now it’s a question of whether they’ll be able to hold it down when the time comes to do so.
Utah (17-7) visits Philadelphia (14-11) on Thursday at 4:00 p.m. PT.