NBA: The Bucks are healthy-ish and KD is cruising.
With a host of teams trying to break through in the East, it will be hard to unseat the two giants at the top.
Part One: The Bucks have found their answers and the Knicks are still searching.
Just over a month ago, the New York Knicks were 7-4 and had the fifth best offense in the league. They were ahead of the Hawks, the Bulls, the Cavs, the Nets, and the reigning champion Milwaukee Bucks in offensive rating.
At that point, the Bucks were 4-6, in the bottom third of the league in both offense and defense. Milwaukee was coming off of back to back losses to New York and Washington where they failed to reach the 100-point mark for the fifth time in ten games and had lost five of their last six contests after winning three of four to open the season.
But since then, the Bucks have gone 14-4, including an eight game win streak and only two games in which they have been held under 100 points.
Milwaukee’s early season woes have a pretty clear explanation. Jrue Holiday played in just two of their first eight games, he returned for the third game of Khris Middleton’s eight game absence. Since Middleton returned on November 17th against the Lakers, the Bucks have gone 12-2. They are now 18-10, and Giannis Atentokounmpo is playing even better with both of his co-stars on the floor with him. They’re second in the East, and they are well within striking distance of the first place Nets. Plus, they’ve added DeMarcus Cousins, so the basketball gods (me) will be looking on them favorably.
Meanwhile, the Knicks have had a rude awakening after their surprise performance under new head coach Tom Thibodeau last season. They made the playoffs for the first time in almost a decade—the last time was when Carmelo Anthony took them to the Eastern Conference semifinals in 2013.
Since November 8th, the Knicks are just 5-11, and are now 12th in the East at 12-15. They’re still only one game out of the play-in tournament, but they’re also playing in a highly contested conference. Only the Magic and the Pistons have fewer than 12 wins, so the Knicks are currently at the bottom of the competitor brackets, and while they are a team that definitely should be able to figure out how to win some games, it’s easier said than done when everyone else is in a similar position.
Even if you think that the new-look Cavs are going to regress—and I wouldn’t bet on that—and you point out that the Pacers are maybe going to rebuild, there are still a lot of decent teams fighting for the bottom four seeds in the East. Of the eleven other competitive teams in the conference—Brooklyn, Milwaukee, Chicago, Miami, Cleveland, Philadelphia, Washington, Charlotte, Atlanta, Boston, and Toronto—which among them will fall out of contention?
Coach Thibs is not a man to let a question like that hang in the air for very long without something being done about it. So at the end of November, after a 21 point loss to the Sixers at home, Thibodeau announced that he was benching Kemba Walker, not just taking him out of the starting lineup but taking away the entirety of his playing time. But since Kemba’s benching the Knicks have lost five of seven, and they’ve failed to hold an opponent below below 100 points in all but two of those matchups.
We have gotten to see lots of Derrick Rose, as is bound to happen with Thibs at the helm, and Evan Fournier has certainly been better than he was in Boston last year, but that can’t really save a team. A healthy RJ Barrett is important, but he’s already played in nearly every game. Immanuel Quickley has continued to develop, but after shooting 39% from deep in his rookie campaign he’s down to just 33% this year, even though his two-point and free-throw shooting have both improved. Hopefully that means that it will come back, but with a guy who still hasn’t played 100 games we can’t be sure what lies ahead. Julius Randle has also returned to earth after shooting a career-best 41% beyond the arc in his All-NBA campaign last year, which was only the second time in his career that he had ever shot better than 30% from deep.
One bright spot for New York in Sunday’s game was rookie Quentin Grimes in his first career start. Grimes had only played ten or more minutes four times before his start against the Bucks. At the end of the game, he led all players with 40 minutes. In his 14th career game, he was 7-13 on threes and 9-17 overall. That’s gotta be pretty awesome. And he did it against the defending champions, helped his team stay in the game, and scored a team high 27 points—which more than doubled his career points total.
The takeaway from Sunday’s matchup isn’t that the Knicks are doomed. It’s that you just cant give up an early lead to an elite team like the Bucks, and you probably aren’t going to beat Milwaukee’s big three without Barrett, Alec Burks, and Obi Toppin, who all missed Sunday’s contest and have all played in at least 25 games.
New York (12-15) hosts Golden State (22-5) on Tuesday night at 4:30 p.m. PT as Stephen Curry looks to set the all-time record for career three pointers. Milwaukee (18-11) hosts Indiana (12-17) on Wednesday at 5:00 p.m. PT.
Part Two: The Magic of Kevin Durant.
Later on Sunday night, the Nets (19-8) took on the Pistons (4-22) at Little Caesars Arena in Detroit.
The Pistons have the worst record in the league, and they’ve scored the second fewest points per game. They are one of two teams (plus Orlando) with five or fewer wins, and they are also one of two (plus Oklahoma City) averaging less than 100 points per game this season. So even though the Nets were starting veteran Patty Mills in the place of superstar James Harden, Detroit was still going to have a hard time earning their fifth win of the season.
Head coach Steve Nash has used a lot of different lineups en route to the best record in the East, but it all rests on Kevin Durant’s ability to win games on both ends of the floor.
A lot of that is because Harden is still getting into shape, despite starting every game aside from Sunday’s matchup with the pistons. The Nets are also missing Kyrie Irving, who they still hope to get back according to The Athletic’s Shams Charania. Those two obstacles to a complete Brooklyn Big Three, plus the recovery of wing Joe Harris from an ankle sprain suffered against Oklahoma City on November 14th, have resulted in eleven different Nets starting games for Nash so far. Seven of them have started at least 10 games, including Harris, who does not yet have a timetable for his return to action.
Harden, the 2018 MVP and three-time scoring champion (2018-20), is averaging just 20.8 points per game. He’s not taking nearly as many shots as he had in the past thanks to Durant, but that scoring total is his lowest since his third season in the league with the Thunder, his final campaign before leaving for Houston. The nine-time All-Star is shooting just 40% overall and a career worst 33.7% from deep. Only in his rookie season, 12 years ago, has he shot worse.
But Harden is still a trooper. Before Sunday, he had played in every single game, he’s averaging 36.2 minutes per game (fifth in the league), and his ability to create shots for himself and others is crucial to keeping Brooklyn’s offense in motion. Harden is handing out 9.6 assists per game, and he stands a chance to record his third career season with double digit assists.
But as a creator for himself, this is the kind of Harden that the Nets want to see, driving hard and getting to the basket in traffic. Not only can he make those tough buckets at the rim, he can use them to get open shots for his teammates. What they don’t want to see is this kind of lack of focus, from Brooklyn’s last trip to Detroit, or this, where he lets a series of no-calls get to him.
With the current version of Harden on the floor, Durant has to be nearly perfect for the Nets to win. And so far, he has. Even in losses, he’s only been held below 50% shooting three times. Only the Warriors and Knicks have held him below 40% shooting this year, and Brooklyn still won that Knicks game thanks to 34 points from Harden.
So, surprise, surprise, Durant had another monster performance against Detroit. KD dropped a season-high 51 points, just three shy of his career best and the most points he’s ever scored in a Nets uniform.
But he also played over 41 minutes, which is behind only the 45 minutes he played against Phoenix at the end of November for his highest total all season. Durant is averaging 36.5 minutes per game, which is the third-most in the league and the most he’s logged since he was 25, over six years ago with the Thunder.
While he averaged at least 38 minutes for six straight seasons in OKC, Durant fractured his right foot at the end of that stretch in 2014. He needed multiple surgeries to repair the injury and ended up playing just 27 games that season. In March of 2017, he sustained a bone bruise and a MCL sprain when Zaza Pachulia fell into his leg, missing 19 games before returning to win his first of back-to-back Finals MVPs that spring.
Then, as we know all too well, Durant injured his calf in the 2019 Western Conference Semifinals against Houston, before returning for Game 5 of the Finals against the Raptors. Under three minutes into the second quarter, Durant tore the Achilles tendon in his right leg while trying to make space against former Thunder teammate Serge Ibaka.
As The Ringer’s J. Kyle Mann points out in the video below, Durant’s height and wingspan are comparable to the likes of big men like Myles Turner and Anthony Davis. But KD’s skillset makes him a much more dynamic threat than either of those two. More than anyone else, Dirk Nowitzki probably set the stage for a guy with Durant’s skills and size, but KD’s handles, quickness, and touch set him aside from just about anyone else in the game.
The point is, Durant is one of the greatest to ever play the game. And anyone who was ready to count him out after his Achilles injury was sorely mistaken.
Even though he ended up missing half of Brooklyn’s games last year, through his first 17 games back on the court he averaged 30.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 5.2 assists on 53% shooting overall and an elite 45% from deep. Even though he missed 23 straight games in the middle of the season, his efficiency actually increased when he returned. He probably would have been an MVP candidate if he hadn’t missed all those games, and when he returned he set about proving that point.
In the playoffs he took off, averaging 32.6 points on 54.6% shooting overall and 50% from deep in the first round against Boston. Then, in seven games against Milwaukee, he averaged a ridiculous 35.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, and 5.4 assists on just under 50% shooting.
In the overtime thriller that decided the series, Durant played 53 minutes and led all players with 48 points. He nailed a game-tying two over P.J. Tucker with just a second left in regulation, but it wasn’t enough to stop the Bucks.
Brooklyn learned last year that they probably can’t get past Milwaukee without Kyrie. Their star guard missed the last three games of the series after suffering an ankle injury in Game 4. After outscoring the Bucks by an average of eight points over the first four games, Brooklyn was -3.3 over the last three games of the series, including losing by a combined 19 points in the final two contests. And that’s with Durant dropping 49, 32, and 48 points over the final three games, including a 17-rebound triple-double in Game 5.
So, the Nets are probably still hoping against all odds that Irving will give up and return to the game.
Even without Kryie and with a hampered Harden, Durant has picked up right where he left off.
He’s leading the league in scoring at 29.4 points per game, and he’s shooting just around 57.5% inside the arc, better than any year prior to joining the Warriors. After his remarkable performance from deep last year, he’s back around his career average of 38% from deep, but he’s making up for that by taking his fewest threes since 2013 and the most midrange attempts of his career.
He’s making an elite 54% of those attempts, and given that all of his best seasons from midrange have come in the least five years I wouldn’t expect him to slow down. He’s also making 68% of his attempts at the rim, and he has the potential to make even more of those. With a healthy Joe Harris (or even Kyrie) on the perimeter drawing attention, Durant would be facing fewer help defenders on those attempts at the basket, and probably could get back above 70% like he’s been over his last four seasons.
The real question, however, is whether KD’s lower body can sustain the toll he put it through in the first half of his career. He’s averaging the third most minutes per game, and no one else at the top of that list is coming off of a career-threatening injury. But perhaps given his experience as a 38-minute-per-game player (which only Toronto’s Fred VanVleet can claim right now), Durant has expressed precisely zero interest in slowing down.
Per ESPN’s Tim MacMahon, KD doesn’t want to listen to people trying to tell him to play fewer minutes.
“I know people might be concerned about my minutes and I got injured before and all this extra shit, but we'll figure it out if I get there. Right now, I want to play basketball."
In other words, the man is just happy to be back at work, and who are we to tell him to slow his roll?
Even though he’s struggled from deep over the last ten games—a very uncharacteristic 25.7% shooting—he’s dishing 6.5 assists, and shooting 46.6% overall. Despite that cold stretch from beyond the arc, Durant is still one of the best midrange shooters in the league and has the seventh best offensive plus/minus. He’s top five in estimated win shares, behind only Giannis, Nikola Jokić, and Steph. And given that he hasn’t shot below 37.5% on threes since 2011, it seems fair to expect that he’ll get back towards his career average of 38.4% even if he doesn’t hit the fantastic 45% mark that he had last year.
From the rest of the roster, there are 12 guys including the injured Joe Harris who have played in at least half of Brooklyn’s games.
Last year, Harris averaged 14 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2 assists on 50% shooting overall and a league-best 47.5% from deep. In the 14 games before he went down, he shot 46.6% from three, which would be his fifth straight season knocking down 40% or more of his attempts from deep. Simply put, the Nets need him back. And he should be, if he can stay healthy when he returns in a few months.
Overall, that squad has kept the Nets atop the East and with one of the best records in the NBA. They have the sixth best defense and the 11th ranked offense, keeping them in the top ten for net rating just behind Milwaukee, Miami, and Cleveland in for Eastern Conference teams.
On offense they lead the league in midrange shooting, and they’re top ten in overall shooting, free throw shooting, assist rate, and steal rate (the percentage of possessions in which opponents steal the ball). On defense they hold opponents to the lowest effective field goal percentage, and the lowest shooting percentages from midrange and beyond the arc. They don’t have the best interior defense, but they’re still in the middle of the pack as far as opponent shooting at the rim goes. They should be able to bring that around with the return of young center Nic Claxton, but he’s missed 18 games and is still ramping up to full activity.
There are twelve guys including Harris who have played in at least half of Brooklyn’s games. Veterans Paul Millsap, Blake Griffin, and LaMarcus Aldridge are all important components of the frontcourt while Claxton is getting back into shape. Millsap is currently out, and when LMA is fifth on your team in minutes per game and more than half of the most played Nets are 30 or older, it’s a reminder of just how nice it would be to get Kyrie back.
Jevon Carter has played in all 27 games as backup point guard, and Bruce Brown has regressed a bit on offense after a fantastic performance last year. Brown is still in the top five percent of all defenders and is only 25, so there’s time for his skills to come around but it’s a lot easier to cover those gaps when you have a full roster to work with.
So, what the Nets need to do—similar to what the Bucks had to do earlier in the season—is bide their time and stay competitive while they wait for the roster to get to full strength.
Regardless of how threatening the Bulls or the Heat might seem, there is a clear top-two in the conference. The Knicks, along with basically everyone else, are going to have to fight hard to earn their spot in the playoffs.
Meanwhile, it will be up to Brooklyn and Milwaukee to continue reminding everyone why they’re the favorites to make it out of the East. If these two teams can make it to the end of the season healthy, it will be must-see tv when they finally get their playoff rematch.
Brooklyn (19-8) hosts Toronto (13-14) on Tuesday night at 4:30 p.m. PT.
Speak of the devil and she shall appear. But Durant is still a beast regardless of whether he sits this game—which would be just his third missed game of the year.
See highlights from KD’s 51 point effort against Detroit here.