NBA: Steph's 40-piece, the bench game, and the rest of the West.
The Warriors closed January with a Steph Curry game against Houston, and opened up February with a bench-game victory over San Antonio.
For the first time since Christmas and just the second time since November 18th, Steph Curry reached the 40-point mark in Golden State’s 122-108 win over the Houston Rockets.
Over the first 15 games of the season, Steph was in incredible form. He was averaging nearly 30 points per game and shooting 42% from beyond the arc, plus 6.1 rebounds, 6.5 assists, and 1.7 steals per game. The Warriors went 13-2 in that span, and were leading the Suns in the West with the best record in the league.
Curry played in 15 of the next 17 games, during which time the Warriors went 13-4, and their star point guard’s efficiency started to wane. In those 15 games, Steph averaged just 26 points, 4.6 rebounds, 5.3 assists, and 1.4 steals while shooting just 41% from the floor and below 40% from deep.
Again, Curry played in 15 of the subsequent 17 games, during which time his waning efficiency truly fell off a cliff. Steph, who had been neck and neck with Kevin Durant for the league lead in scoring, averaged just 22.1 points per game during that stretch on 37.5% shooting from the floor and sub-32% shooting on threes. That span included the one game all year in which he was held to single digit scoring, six of his ten worst scoring totals, five of his ten worst nights from deep, and four of his ten worst nights from the field all season.
That last stretch extended into the Warriors most recent homestand. Steph played in all seven games, during which Golden State was 6-1, but his shooting didn’t rally—he averaged 22.6 points on 38% shooting overall and 32.5% from deep. He made up for it by dishing out nearly eight assists per game including a season-high 12 dimes in their first matchup against the Rockets, but the four-point loss to Indiana’s bench players almost two weeks ago gave a bitter taste to an otherwise successful homestand.
Steph just hasn’t been the MVP candidate that he was at the start of the season, even though he’s still the best player on the floor most nights. This is the worst shooting performance of his career by far, and he just hasn’t been able to capture the elite touch that we saw him average a ridiculous 37 points per game on 44% shooting from deep over the last 20 games last year to push him ahead of Washington’s Bradley Beal to earn his second career scoring title and his personal best scoring average. Curry is still in the 99th percentile for offensive plus/minus, but he’s making fewer shots at the rim and from midrange than any season since the 2012-2013 campaign. Not counting the five games he played in 2020, Steph has never finished outside the top 10% of all shooters from deep for a season—this year, he’s barely inside the top 25 percent. He’s well below his previous career worst efficiency marks, and it’s not entirely clear how he’s going to turn that around.
What’s funny is that Steph is actually shooting almost 42% from deep during 1st and 3rd quarters this year. But in the 2nd and the 4th, he’s only connecting on around 35% of his tries. November was easily his best month in terms of efficiency—he made 42.3% of his threes—but in December he shot just 37% from deep and it was even worst in January, bottoming out just below 33 percent.
In January, the Warriors went 11-6, which is still pretty solid, but each of those losses felt terrible. They got handled by Dallas in their third game of the new year before losing to the Pelicans, Grizzlies, Bucks, and Timberwolves all on the road before homing home and taking a truly embarrassing L at the hands of Indiana’s bench players, who beat them by four points without any of their normal starters available.
Prior to the new year, the Warriors had an offensive rating of 113 and a defensive rating of 102.8 points per hundred possessions, good for a league-best +10.2 net rating. Since then, their offensive rating has dropped to 110.7 and their defensive rating has risen to 105.9, giving then a much slimmer +4.8 net rating. Their offense in January was on par with the 17th ranked Pacers, so it was only their elite defense that kept them competitive.
The problem that the Warriors have to face now isn’t figuring out how to get stops. They’re still pretty damn good at that—despite their painful start to the year, they still would have the second-best defense on the season with the numbers they allowed in January. The problem is finding buckets on offense when Steph isn’t able to knock down shots from anywhere on the floor like we’ve come to expect him to.
As it stands, Golden State has the 11th ranked offense in the league, just ahead of the surging Sixers and behind basically all of the other contenders that they’re worried about. The Jazz are still leading the league with their offense, followed by the Hawks, Suns, Bulls, Hornets, Heat, Nets, Bucks, Grizzlies, and Nuggets, who are all putting together more efficient offenses than the Warriors have been able to.
One of the problems is turnovers. Golden State is second in the league in turnover rate, which entirely negates the fact that they’re tied for the sixth best shooting percentage and they make the second most threes per game behind Utah. Partially thanks to their turnovers and partially thanks to their pace, the Warriors attempt the third fewest two-pointers per hundred possessions (despite connecting on them at the second-best rate in the league) and the second fewest overall field goals. That’s because far too often the Warriors find themselves giving up the ball—in addition to their awful turnover rate, they also give up steals at the third highest rate in the league, which turns into a whole lot of unnecessary transition baskets for their opponents. That just can’t happen when your best offensive creator isn’t making his shots and your best offensive coordinator (Draymond) is still on the sidelines.
Anyways, the Warriors still closed out January in good form.
After hitting the first official buzzer beater of his career against Houston to narrowly come back from a 54-43 halftime deficit at home a week ago, Steph was even better on Monday night.
Curry popped off for 40 points, five rebounds, and nine assists with just one turnover while shooting 50% from deep and 56.5% overall. It was the first time since Christmas that he made seven or more threes, and just the fourth time since the new year (in 15 opportunities) that he made five or more in a game. He really hasn’t had many nights like this for months now, so it’s always a treasure when we do get to see him explode on an opponent like he did against the Rockets.
He scored 30 of his 40 points against Houston in the second half, and 21 of those points came in the final period, when he went 7-10 from the field and 4-7 from deep with no turnovers. According to the Warriors, the game marked the 37th time in his career that Curry scored 20+ points in a single quarter, passing Kobe Bryant for the most since at least 1996. It was the most points he’s ever scored in a fourth quarter in the regular season, his most ever behind only Game 6 of the 2019 West Semifinals—when he had 23 pints on 6-8 shooting against the Rockets to come back and close out the series in Houston (per ESPN).
Really, it feels like we’ve seen performances like this a whole lot more than 36 times in the past. One of those times was last May, when he had 24 points in the first quarter against the Thunder at home to put the Warriors at 35-33, two wins above .500 on the season, with just four games left to play. Remember that? Kind of puts it in perspective that the Dubs are 38-13 going into Tuesday night’s matchup, just one win away from matching last year’s total.
Andrew Wiggins, who has officially been selected for his first ever All-Star game, had 23 points on 8-14 shooting, plus five rebounds, three assists, two steals, and two blocks. He has easily been the second most important player on the floor with Draymond out, and even though he hasn’t had any real monstrous games he is still a crucial tool on both ends of the floor. Over the final five games of the month, Wiggins averaged just under 19 points, 5.6 rebounds, 2.6 assists, 1.8 steals, and 1.4 blocks per game while shooting 50% overall and 44% from deep. He was even better in the last three, shooting a remarkable 54.5% on threes after going just 2-10 the previous two games. So, even though it would be ridiculous to imagine Wiggins getting the nod to start an All-Star game with a healthy Western Conference (remember that guy Kawhi or his friend Paul?), he is an invaluable member of Golden State’s operation and will be key to everything they hope to do over the rest of the season.
The Rockets game was also Klay Thompson’s 10th since his return, and he had 14 points, three rebounds, three assists, a steal, a block, and just one turnover. He did most of his damage in the first half, when he was 4-7 from the field, before cooling off to finish just 6-15 overall and 1-8 from deep on the night. But that’s okay! It turns out that you don’t get to go right back to being a career 42% from downtown when you come back from a two and a half year long absence. He’s shot just below 30% from deep over his last five games, but he’s still getting his shots up—taking at least seven threes in all but two of his appearances so far.
Then there’s Kevon Looney, who has been huge since Draymond went out with a back injury at the beginning of the month. In the 14 games since, Loon has reached double digit rebounds eight times, plus he’s averaging more than four offensive boards per game in that span. Over those 14 games he’s been grabbing almost twice as many offensive rebounds as he did over the previous 37, and has nearly doubled his total rebounding numbers while taking on significantly tougher assignments without Draymond around to take on the defensive burden. He also hasn’t missed a single game all year.
Jordan Poole may have had just six points and a ghastly five turnovers against the Rockets, but even including that game he’s had an excellent last five outings, averaging 15.8 points per game on 50% shooting overall and nearly 47% from deep. He took a season-low four shots on Monday, but that’s because he didn’t have to. Poole should be a key part of the Warriors going into the future—they’re actually 14-1 when he’s taken 15 or more shots in a game, 12-3 when he scores 20 or more points, and 20-4 when he scores 15 or more. They’re just 5-4 when he’s scored fewer than 10 points, and 4-5 when he’s taken fewer than 10 shots. In the 28 games where he’s had two or fewer turnovers, the Warriors are 23-5. In other words, Poole is good, and when he’s hot he helps get the rest of the team going and takes offensive pressure and defensive attention away from Steph and Wiggins. So if every now and then he happens to have nearly as many turnovers as points, we’re going to let it slide.
Then, they opened February in San Antonio. They were without Steph (rest), Klay (still no back-to-backs), Wiggins (rest), or Draymond (back). And it was awesome.
With a starting lineup of Jordan Poole, Moses Moody, Damion Lee, Juan Toscano-Anderson, and Kevon Looney, the Warriors beat the Spurs 124-120 to move to 39-13 before their Thursday matchup against Sacramento. Five of them finished in double figures. I think Jordan Poole likes starting.
Poole had a game-high 31 points, six rebounds, five assists, a steal, a block, and just one turnover in his 34 minutes of action. He was just 4-13 from deep, but he counted for half of the team’s perfect 18-18 night at the free throw line. 14 of those points came in the third quarter, which helped the Warriors keep the game close(ish) heading into the final period.
It was a perfect comeback game for him after his six point outing against the Rockets the night before. After the game, he said that Steph was giving him advice and support all game long, and it was plenty obvious watching the broadcast that Curry was having a great time watching his teammates come back from a 17 point deficit the way they did.
Lee had 21 points, five rebounds, two assists, and two steals and was 5-10 from deep and 7-15 overall. He made the assist on the game winner, and knocked down both of his free throws to put the Warriors up four with just a few seconds to go. And, it was his hustle that gave Moses Moody the opportunity to grab the loose ball that led to that key assist, so shoutout D. Lee.
Speaking of Moody, he was next on the team with a career-high 20 points and seven rebounds. He also went 6-10 from deep, which is the best performance by a Warriors rookie since one Mr. Stephen Curry, who was loving every minute of it from the bench. He also had the key offensive rebound that set up Poole’s game winner (see above).
But Moody wasn’t the only rookie who showed up today—Jonathan Kuminga had 19 points of his own plus three rebounds and two assists while shooting 8-15 from the floor. And it was Kuminga who played basically all of the fourth quarter, when he poured in 14 points of his own on 6-9 shooting including a key three in motion to help cut the San Antonio lead to 114-109 with five and a half minutes to go. It was his fifth basket of the quarter after making just two over the previous three.
So, after entering the fourth quarter trailing 104-89, the Warriors turned it all around in the final period to outscore the Spurs 35-16 and eek out a come from behind victory in the final moments. The Spurs led the game for nearly 44 minutes of action, and the Warriors had the lead for just under three minutes. A huge part of what Golden State was able to do wasn’t just about the fact that their best offensive performance came in the fourth quarter, although that was awesome. It was their team defense that made their comeback possible—they held the Spurs scoreless for four and a half minutes in the back end of the quarter which is what allowed them to turn an eight point deficit into a three point advantage before Keldon Johnson went to the line on a Moses Moody blocking foul that was nearly a charge.
Over the final six minutes of the game, the Warriors went on a 18-6 run thanks to buckets from Kuminga, Lee, and Poole. But they also got serious help from Chris Chiozza, who played a season high 27 minutes including almost the entirety of the fourth quarter, and finished with five assists and was 3-5 from deep. He made two threes in the first half of the fourth to bring the Warriors within eight, and put in serious effort on both ends of the floor to help give them a chance to come back.
If there’s anything that I learned from this game, it’s that we should expect to see a whole lot of Poole and Kuminga daggers for years to come.
The Rest of the West
What we have now is a situation in which the Warriors might indeed be the best team when they have a fully healthy roster, but the Phoenix Suns have nonetheless been the best team in the West so far.
The Suns are 41-9, with easily the best record in the league past the halfway point. They’ve won 11 straight heading into a matchup in Atlanta on Thursday night where they will be significant favorites over the struggling Hawks. After losing back to back games at the end of December to the Warriors and Grizzlies, which was the first time they had done that since their 1-3 start to the season, Phoenix has gone 15-2 and has put some distance between themselves and Golden State in second. They’ve had a monster 118.9 offensive rating in that span, which would blow Utah’s no. 1 offense out of the water. The Warriors only have to play them one more time over their final 30 games.
Meanwhile, the Jazz are struggling—they were already sliding before losing Donovan Mitchell to a concussion he suffered in the middle of a game against the Lakers, and since he went down they’ve won just one of seven games. They didn’t exactly have an easy lineup for their current five game slide, either. It started with back to back games in San Francisco and Phoenix, followed by another matchup with the Suns in Salt Lake City and losses in Memphis and Minneapolis before they finally got to come home. They’re starting off February with a two week, six game homestand, and hopefully will get back Mitchell soon to help fill the new void created by the loss of Joe Ingles to an ACL tear that will end his season.
Mitchell is the key to everything the Jazz want to do, just as much as Rudy Gobert. His speed, handle, and touch unlock scoring opportunities both for himself and everyone around him, and he’s a key tool for 34 year old Mike Conley to work with so that he isn’t taking the burden of running all of the offense. They’re going to face the Nuggets, Nets, Knicks, Warriors, Magic, and Rockets over the course of their homestand, so we’ll see whether Mitchell has returned by the time the Warriors come to town in a week. They’ll face off one more time at the end of the season in Chase Center, a few days after the Warriors host the Suns.
The Grizzlies have had the opposite experience of the Jazz. They started the season slow, 9-10, with a -6.7 net rating, and lost their tenth time in a game against Atlanta that saw Ja Morant go down with an ankle injury mid game. But then they won 10 of their next 12 while he was out, and have been electric since Christmas, going 16-4 after losing the first two games of his return to action. Over those 20 games they’ve pushed themselves into a top-ten offense and defense, and the sixth best net rating behind the Warriors, Suns, Jazz, Cavs, and Heat. They also passed Utah for the third seed, and if the Warriors don’t get Draymond back any time soon there is more than a small chance that Memphis will be battling just as hard to break into the top two over the rest of the season.
Memphis has lost to Philadelphia, Dallas (twice), and Milwaukee over that 20 game stretch, but they came out of it with a +6.6 net rating and statement wins against Phoenix, Brooklyn, Cleveland, Golden State, Chicago, Denver, and Utah. Morant played in all but one of the contests, and is averaged 29.4 points, 6.5 rebounds, and 6.8 assists while shooting 51% from the floor and leading his team to victory after victory. The Warriors are 1-2 against them on the year—the Grizzlies are the only team that has been able to beat them twice so far this season. They’ll see each other again at the end of the season in Memphis, in a game that could have serious playoff implications if things stay as tight as they are right now.
The rest of the West is hanging around for now, but Phoenix, Memphis, Utah, and Golden State are the top dogs.
The Mavericks have won 14 of their last 20, including victories over the Nuggets, Warriors, Bulls, and twice over the Grizzlies. Dallas has just the 20th ranked offense overall, but their rate over their last 20 games would have them in line with the best in the league. They do have the fifth best defensive rating, but with the loss of Tim Hardaway Jr. to a foot injury, they may not have the offensive production to make their defense worth the effort.
The Nuggets and the Lakers are the two other teams that could make some noise in the West, but both are dealing with serious problems. Nikola Jokić and LeBron James are both playing like MVPs, but the Lakers are just 24-27 and Denver has lost Michael Porter Jr. for the rest of the season and is still waiting on the recovery of star guard Jamal Murray from the ACL tear he suffered last year. They did pick up Bryn Forbes from the Spurs to try to bolster their options on the wing, but Jokić just can’t do it all on his own—even though they’re still 28-22, it’s hard to imagine their MVP being able to pull them through one playoff series, let alone more than one.
The Lakers are 24-27 heading into a game against Portland on Wednesday night, with a bottom-ten offensive rating. LeBron may still be one of the best players in the league, but the LA Big Three hasn’t figured itself out yet. Ultimately, it all comes down to James, who takes the team from a stagnant offense to one of the most potent in the league when he’s on the floor. Given that Anthony Davis missed 17 straight games over December and January, it isn’t totally unrealistic to think that they should be able to put together a win streak that could push them as high as maybe the 5th seed depending on how long the Timberwolves, Nuggets, and Clippers (who refuse to quit) stay in front of them. It’s anyone’s guess how they’ll perform over their final 30 games, but they’re 3-7 over their last ten and set to face the Bucks, Warriors, and Jazz before the All-Star break.
So, while we don’t know which team stands the best chance of making it out of the West’s side of the playoff bracket, there have been some pretty solid indicators to work off of. With Utah struggling, my money is on one of those top three teams. Phoenix, Memphis, and Golden State have the deepest and most talented rosters in the conference, and have all shown that when they’re playing well there isn’t a whole lot that anyone can do to stop them. Whichever two of them make it to the conference finals, it will be an incredible series to decide on whoever gets to face the East’s champion (the Bucks, for the record).
The Warriors still have the best defense in the league, and have been able to hold it together pretty remarkably without Draymond on the floor and while trying to integrate Klay and others into their system. The Grizzlies are worse defensively than either Phoenix or Golden State, but they have the offensive firepower and flexibility to get buckets against the best opposing defenses with Morant exploding to the basket and Desmond Bane becoming one of the league’s premiere sharpshooters. Phoenix, on the other hand, has the number three offense and the number two defense, and easily the most well rounded of the three teams, with elite offensive creators like Devin Booker and Chris Paul complemented by great defenders like Mikal Bridges.
Despite what my heart wants, if the playoffs were to start today I would put both Phoenix and Memphis a step above Golden State as conference champion favorites. But fortunately for us, the season doesn’t end today, and over the next few months we’ll have a few dozen more games from each team to help us get a better idea of what each has in store.
Memphis (35-18) plays the Knicks on Wednesday night in New York. Golden State (39-13) plays the Kings on Thursday in San Francisco. Phoenix (41-9) plays the Hawks on Thursday in Atlanta.