NBA: Where does Kevin Love go next?
Once one of the NBA's premier big men, the five time All-Star has been injured and/or demotivated in the three seasons since LeBron left Cleveland.
The Cleveland Cavaliers (9-8) have been the early season’s biggest surprise in the Eastern Conference.
Even though they’ve lost three games in a row, the Cavs were 9-5 prior this slide and they’ve been competing despite injuries to Collin Sexton (torn meniscus) and rookie Evan Mobley (right elbow sprain). On Thursday night, they managed to take a lead against the Warriors into the fourth quarter and held Golden State to their fourth fewest points (104), despite missing Sexton, Mobley, Jarrett Allen, Lauri Markkanen, and Cedi Osman.
The Cavs are giving up the third fewest points per game and they have the 10th ranked defensive rating. That’s why they’ve been able to stay above .500, even though they’ve been struggling to find scoring (their offensive rating is 22nd in the league).
With a promising franchise cornerstone of the future in Mobley, and the young backcourt duo of Sexton and Darius Garland, the future of Cleveland basketball is the brightest it’s been since LeBron James left in 2018. To be fair, the bar is pretty darn low, since they’ve had a 27% winning rate (60-159) over the last three seasons.
Meanwhile, Kevin Love is in his eighth season with Cleveland and his 14th season overall. Love made three All-Star teams with the Minnesota Timberwolves before signing a five-year, $113 million contract to join LeBron and Kyrie Irving. With James, Love, and Irving (although Kyrie left after the 2017 playoffs), Cleveland made it to four consecutive NBA Finals and won the franchise’s first and only championship in 2016.
Because of his key role in the team’s success during that run, Love signed a four-year, $120 million extension in the 2018 offseason, as the Cavs attempted to secure at least one star with James and Irving departed for new pastures. Unfortunately for Cleveland, Love played only 22 games in the ‘18-19 season and then just 25 last year. That doesn’t work when you’re talking about a guy who the Cavs are playing $31.3 million—one of the 30 richest contracts in the league. This year, Love is making more than $10 million more than the next highest paid player on the team, fellow big man Jarrett Allen.
In fact, four of Cleveland’s top five largest salaries are going to guys in their frontcourt—Love, Allen, Mobley, and offseason addition Markkanen. The Cavs roster also includes third-year power forward Dean Wade, veteran center Ed Davis, sophomore power forward Lamar Stevens, and fan favorite center Tacko Fall on a two-way contract. That means that he is one of eight big men fighting to get minutes from head coach J.B. Bickerstaff.
At 33, Love is the oldest and most expensive player on a roster where the most important pieces—Mobley, Garland, Sexton, Allen, Markkanen, and Isaac Okoro—are all 24 or younger. That’s why it wasn’t too surprising when Cleveland swapped out 28-year-old Larry Nance Jr. for Markkanen, even though Nance is a better player.
Cleveland is benefitting from the fact that Mobley, Garland, and Sexton are all still on their rookie contracts (none of them is making more than $8 million), but Sexton is due for a new contract this offseason and Garland the year after. Allen is owed $20 million every year for the next four seasons, and Markkanen’s salary is set to increase 3/4 of a million per year for the next three. At small forward, Cleveland has team options in the next two seasons for the 20-year-old Okoro, and they have 26-year-old Cedi Osman under contract for two more years.
Right now, the only players with guaranteed contracts or even team options past next season are Allen, Markkanen, Mobley, Osman, Okoro, and Stevens. Cleveland has the flexibility to abandon part or all of the SexLand backcourt combo pretty soon if they so desire, but that wont impact their Love strategy the same way as their guys who also play his positions.
With Mobley out 2-4 weeks with a right elbow sprain, there is at least some room for Love to get some more minutes and either prove that he should stick around or, more likely, that he can be a valuable asset to a team willing to take on his $30 million price tag. His contract does decline by $2 million next year, but that’s still a whole lot of money.
In his return to the lineup against the Nets after a bout with COVID-19, Love put up 11 points, 9 rebounds, 2 assists, and a steal. As The Athletic’s Kelsey Russo reported on Thursday, Bickerstaff praised Love’s play after the game against Brooklyn:
“His intelligence, his shot-making, he still carries that same gravity with him. He helps spread the floor, still defensive rebounds and all those things. And I thought he was out there really competing and giving effort too. So I think it was a great start for him, and he’ll continue to build on it tomorrow.”
And, for the first time in a while, it sounds like Love is excited to be on the floor. During the ‘19-20 season, he openly discussed the difficulties he was having dealing with the fact that the franchise he joined at the top of the conference was now in rebuilding mode:
“It’s not fun. It’s not fun right now,” he said in early December. “I think you can see that. I don’t think anybody signed up for playing like this, like we are right now. We’re not taking steps in the right direction and it’s pretty apparent.”
But this year, while Love was in health and safety protocols, the Cavs beat Charlotte, Portland, Toronto, and New York. It turns out that winning teams are a lot more fun to be on, and Love is feeling it. Again, courtesy of Kelsey Russo:
“I will tell you, the hardest thing for me was wanting to be in those locker rooms postgame in Toronto and New York,” Love said. “I wanted to be around the team. Even if I wasn’t playing. Just being in those locker rooms because I know that was a lot of fun, and I saw all the videos postgame and it was pretty cool. That’s what you miss the most.”
As recently as this August, Love and his representatives publicly stated that they have no intention of coming to the table with the Cavaliers front office to negotiate a contract buyout that would let Cleveland get out of some of the $60 million they owe him over this season and the next. That is surely a difficult pill to swallow for the Cavs, since FiveThirtyEight has Love’s projected market value over this year and the next two never going any higher than $4.1 million.
However, even though he isn’t open to a buyout, he has supported the idea of a trade—unfortunately, his injuries over the last three years and his performance when he has been on the court aren’t the strongest pulls for most franchises.
One thing we do know is that Love doesn’t enjoy losing. So what incentive would a non-competitive team have to bring him on board for at least the next two years?
The most likely trade candidates for Love are teams with something real to gain (probably not another OKC draft pick collection extravaganza). Unfortunately for him, that’s not a long list. Just ask the Houston Rockets how hard it is to trade a contract like this—they’re currently trying to figure out how to offload a combined $91.7 million in the form of John Wall. But, on the other hand, the Wizards were able to turn Russell Westbrook (91.3) into multiple pieces that have put them just one game back of the best record in the East, so nothing is a lost cause.
I came up with a few trades, ranging from semi-plausible to completely unlikely.
#1 Sacramento Kings
The Kings are the best candidate in my eyes for a few reasons, and the top of that list is power forward Marvin Bagley III. Sacramento tragically selected Bagley with the 2nd pick in the 2018 draft, ahead of the likes of Luka Dončić (3rd), Jaren Jackson Jr. (4th), Trea Young (5th), Mikal Bridges (10th), Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (11th), Miles Bridges (12th), Michael Porter Jr. (14th), Robert Williams (27th), Jalen Brunson (33rd), Devonte’ Graham (34th), and a bunch of other guys who have been infinitely more valuable to their teams than Bagley.
Further, Sacramento isn’t exactly flush with elite front court options. Aside from Richaun Holmes, the Kings have Bagley, Tristan Thompson, Alex Len, Chimezie Metu, Damian Jones, and two-way rookie Neemias Queta. Holmes is electric, and there seems to be interest in seeing how Metu—who is logging a career-high 20.7 minutes per game so far—might develop with more substantial playing time in his fourth year in the league.
Beyond Holmes and Metu (and perhaps Queta, who they took with the 39th pick this year), the other four Kings bigs aren’t key pieces of the franchise’s future. Bagley has played in three games and Jones in four. Len and Thompson, while they bring valuable veteran experience, are far from being irreplaceable.
Len has $7.6 million owed to him over this year and next, and Bagley ($11.3 million), Thompson ($9.7 million), and Jones ($1.9 million), are all in the final season of their contracts. None of them are incredible trade assets, but the Kings have some flexibility outside of their core of Holmes, De’Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Harrison Barnes, Tyrese Haliburton, and Davion Mitchell. And Sacramento’s wings like Maurice Harkless and Terence Davis are also relatively replaceable. I am anything but a front office expert, but if Sacramento was willing to part with some of these guys and maybe involve another team or two to sweeten the deal, I think that Love would be a great addition to their team.
One place where Love would benefit the Kings is as a release valve from deep. He is a career 36.9% three-point shooter, and as recently as his last full season (‘19-20) he shot 53.7% from inside the arc and 37.4% from deep. While he’s not a lights-out, he would be a major upgrade from Bagley, whose career-best three-point shooting was the 34.3% mark he put up last year on only 2.5 attempts per game (which was also a career high).
I truly dont understand how the math works on trades, and it probably would be hard to trade any of Sacramento’s guys to make up for Love’s massive salary, but he sure would be a nice temporary replacement for Bagley, who has been absolutely useless for the Kings.
Alternatively the Kings are flush with guards and De’Aaron Fox gets paid $28 million this year and $163 million through the ‘25-26 season. Trading Fox in favor of a Haliburton-Mitchell backcourt of the future would probably piss off Kings fans, but it wouldn’t be the most ridiculous thing to do.
#2 Philadelphia 76ers
Do you know who also makes $31 million a year? That’s right, good old #25, point forward Ben Simmons.
With Colin Sexton officially out for the rest of the season, can you imagine a Cavs starting lineup of Simmons and Garland in the backcourt, Markannen or Okoro on the wing, and Mobley and Allen in the front court? Sure, Sexton can shoot, but it’s really hard to have your two starting guards be just 6-1 and about 190 pounds apiece (Simmons is 6-11 and 240 pounds). Cleveland is already a physically massive team, but Simmons is just about the most athletic near-seven-footer you can find. It’s like if the Cavs had Sexton’s defensive intensity but on steroids.
Would Philadelphia president of basketball operations Daryl Morey be willing to give up Simmons for Love? The Sixers are already paying Tobias Harris $36 million to play the same position as Love, Georges Niang is knocking down 40% of his threes on a career-high 5.6 attempts per game, and they’ve drafted two power forwards in the last two drafts—Paul Reed in 2020 and Charles Bassey in 2021.
However, if the Simmons situation drags on for long enough and Philadelphia isn’t too many pieces away from being a contender, I could perhaps envision a world in which Morey and the rest of the front office at least entertain the idea. We all know they would prefer guys like Damian Lillard, James Harden, and Bradley Beal, but according to The Athletic’s Sam Amick, the Sixers have a list of approximately 30 players who they would be willing to trade Simmons to get.
I don’t imagine that Love is actually on that list, and Philadelphia seems willing to wait beyond this season to resolve the issue, but hey, who knows!
#3 Minnesota Timberwolves
D’Angelo Russell ($30 million).
Russell has had a slow start this season, logging his worst ever field goal percentage (37.9%), his worst two-point percentage (43%), his worst true shooting percentage (50%), his lowest assist rate (30%) since he left the Lakers in the 2017 offseason, and his lowest PER (14.9) since his rookie year. He’s also hitting threes at his second-worst career rate (33%) even though they’re making up over 50% of his field goal attempts (again a career high).
The T-Wolves are a lot more likely to try to trade Russell for someone like Simmons, but if Philadelphia continues to hold the line Minnesota may begin to look elsewhere in hopes of making their first playoffs since 2018 (which is the only time they’ve made it since 2004). While they do already have guys like Taurean Prince, Jarred Vanderbilt, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid, and Jake Layman on the roster, they’re also pretty flush with guards with the addition of Patrick Beverly, the return of Malik Beasley, and the growth of young star Anthony Edwards. Moving on from Russell would let them lean into the Edwards-Beasley backcourt, with Beverly backing them up.
I don’t know that Love would really fit in with Minnesota’s plans (if they actually have a plan, which is not a guarantee), but I could definitely see them being part of a multi-team trade involving Love, Russell, and another star who needs moving. The problem is always going to be that Love is old and these other stars are young (Russell and Simmons are both 25), but some of these teams like Minnesota may get pretty darn desperate over the course of the season.
#4 Portland Trail Blazers
CJ McCollum ($30.9 million).
I’m not sure this would actually make Portland better, but on the other hand it could force Chauncey Billups to slide Norman Powell up from small forward to shooting guard and give Anfernee Simons more room to grow. I think it would also give them more lineup flexibility, since they could have Powell, Robert Covington (maybe), or any of their recent draft picks (Nassir Little, CJ Elleby, Keljin Blevins, and Greg Brown III) at small forward.
At 251 pounds and 6-foot 8-inches, Love is taller than every Blazer except for centers Jusuf Nurkić and Cody Zeller (plus rookies Brown and Watford) and he weighs more than everyone but Nurkić. He’s not particularly light on his feet because of it, but he’s still able to box guys out in the post and even during his recent down seasons he’s still grabbing more rebounds than every Blazer except Nurkić. Further, Love is a veteran who knows how the game works, and his 2.8 assists per game over the last three seasons would trail only Lillard and McCollum.
Would this be better for Portland than a McCollum for Ben Simmons trade? Maybe no, maybe yes. Simmons is infinitely more athletic and a much better defender, but he also needs the ball in his hands on offense to be of any value—which would take the ball out of the hands of Lillard, Simons, and Powell.
Anyways, this trade isn’t going to happen, but it’s worth thinking about some sort of radical change for the Blazers if they want to be more than an early out in the playoffs.
#5 Toronto Raptors
Pascal Siakam ($31.3 million).
This is not going to happen. It’s probably a bad sign for the Cavs front office that this is in my top five.
Good luck, Kevin.