NBA: Who are these Boston Celtics?
Even though Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown in their fifth season together, their time in green has been anything but stable, and this year they're looking to bounce back from a mediocre 2020-21 season.
The Celtics are (6-7) heading into Monday night’s matchup against the Cavaliers—they are 3-7 against teams at or above .500 and got their other three wins against the struggling Rockets, Magic, and Bucks. They started the season 2-5 but have gone 4-2 since then. In a crowded Eastern Conference, what’s going wrong, what’s going right, and where can Boston look to improve under new head coach Ime Udoka?
The Celtics are 10th in the East, and it’s really not who of the 11 teams above and around them—the 76ers (8-6), Heat (8-5), Nets (9-4), Wizards (9-3), Bulls (8-4), Cavs (9-5), Knicks (7-6), Raptors (7-7), Hornets (7-7), Bucks (6-8), and Hawks (5-9)—will be falling off. I mean maybe the Cavs, with Collin “Young Bull” Sexton going down with a torn meniscus and indefinitely separating the legendary SexLand duo, but that doesn’t even guarantee that the Celtics can make it into the play-in.
So, how are Udoka and the Celtics’ core—Jayson Tatum, Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart, Robert Williams, Dennis Schröder, and Al Horford—going to right this ship? As of now, Boston has the 6th best defense in the East, but they have the 3rd worst offense. That core, plus reserves Josh Richardson, Romeo Langford, Grant Williams, Peyton Pritchard, Jabari Parker, and Aaron Nesmith, need to figure out how to generate more consistent offense if their defensive efforts are going to be worth anything.
Even though star wings Brown and Tatum are still relatively young, this is their fifth season playing alongside each other, and there are pieces that need to come together if they want to reach another level (or even just get back to being a playoff team).
Under Doc Rivers, who coached the team from ’04-05 through the ’12-13 season, the Celtics made it to at least the second round of the playoffs in 5 straight seasons, including a title in 2008, a finals appearance in 2010, and a conference finals appearance in 2012. After going 41- 40 and losing in the first round in 2013, Brad Stevens was hired out of Butler University to take the Celtics into a new era following the departures of Hall of Famers Ray Allen (2012 offseason), Paul Pierce (2013 offseason), Kevin Garnett (2013 offseason), and the rest of the championship core.
In the first Stevens season, the Celtics went 25-57 and drafted Smart with the 6th pick—before Bogdan Bogdanović, Clint Capela, Jordan Clarkson, Spencer Dinwiddie, Gary Harris, Joe Harris, Nikola Jokić, Zach LaVine, and Julius Randle. And even though they’ve made the playoffs every year since Smart was drafted, the franchise hasn’t exactly been stable in this most recent era.
A great way to see what’s been happening in Boston is to look at roster changes and draftee performance since then.
2014-15: 40-42, 7th Seed
With a rookie Smart, Boston traded Rajon Rondo—the sole remaining member of the championship team—to Dallas for Jae Crowder and acquired a young Isaiah Thomas in a trade with Phoenix, who were loaded with guards. In 21 games with the Celtics after the trade, Thomas averaged 19 points, 2 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in 26 minutes per game, sharing time with Smart, who split his time at the two guard positions but played predominantly at the point. They were swept in the first round of the playoffs by LeBron and the Cavaliers, but they had a pretty successful bounce-back season and in the playoffs IT scored 20 points in three of the four games, including 22-5-10 in Game 1 and 21-5-9 in Game 4.
2015-16: 48-34, 5th Seed
In 2015 they drafted guard Terry Rozier out of Louisville with the 16th pick. Rozier would spend four seasons in Boston, playing 272 games, averaging 20 minutes per game, 7.7 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 2.3 assists on 40/35/78 shooting.
In his first two seasons with Charlotte (‘19-21), Rozier played 34.4 minutes per game and had 19.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 4.2 assists, and 1.1 steals on 46/40/84 shooting.
The ‘15-16 team made it to the first round and lost 2-4 to the Hawks, who were led by Paul Millsap, Jeff Teague, Horford, Kent Bazemore, Schröder, and Kyle Korver. Against Atlanta, Thomas averaged 24.2 points, 3 rebounds, and 5 assists, scoring more than 25 points in four games, including a 42-point effort in Game 3.
2016-17: 53-29, 1st Seed
In 2016, Boston drafted Jaylen Brown out of Cal with the 3rd pick. In his first year he put up a 6.6-2.2-2.8 line on 51/34/69 shooting in 17.2 minutes per game. Since his rookie year, Brown has averaged 17.6-5.3-2.0 and 1.1 steals in 30.9 minutes per game while shooting 53/38/70. Last year he put up 24.7-6-3.4 and 1.2 assists on 54/40/76 shooting.
In his second year, Rozier averaged 5.5 points, 3.1 rebounds and 1.8 assists on 41/37/77 shooting in 17.1 minutes off the bench.
Boston also signed Horford, who put up 14 points, 6.8 rebounds, 5 assists and 1.3 blocks on 52/36/80 shooting in his first season with the Celtics.
In the playoffs, the Celtics defeated the Bulls 4-2 in the first round, the Wizards 4-3 in the conference semifinals, and then fell to the Cavaliers 4-1 in the conference finals.
Thomas had a prolific postseason campaign before getting injured in the conference finals and missing the final three games. In 15 games he averaged 23.3 points, 3.1 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 0.9 steals on 43/33/82 shooting. His most notable performance came in Game 2 against the Wizards, where he dropped 53 points to out-duel John Wall, who had 40 points and 13 assists in Boston’s overtime win.
Across ’15-16 and ’16-17
Thomas put up 25.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 6.1 assists and 1 steal per game on 49/37/89 shooting in 33.0 minutes per game.
Avery Bradley (19th pick in 2010) put up 15.6 points, 4.2 rebounds, 2.1 assists and 1.4 steals per game on 51/37/76 shooting in 33.4 minutes per game.
Crowder put up 14.0 points, 5.4 rebounds, 2.0 assists and 1.4 steals on 53/37/82 shooting in 32.0 minutes per game.
Smart averaged 10.0 points, 4.0 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 1.5 steals on 42/27/80 shooting in 29 minutes per game.
Kelly Olynyk (DAL 13th pick in 2013) put up 9.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 1.8 assists on 54/38/74 shooting in 20.4 minutes per game.
2017-18: 55-27, 2nd Seed
In 2017 they drafted Tatum out of Duke with the 3rd pick and Semi Ojeleye with 37th overall pick. They also traded Thomas to Cleveland for Kyrie Irving, who put up 24.4 points, 3.8 rebounds, 5.1 assists and 1.1 steals on 54/41/89 shooting in 32.2 minutes per game and made his 5th All-Star game.
In a huge offseason swing, Boston brought in Utah star wing Gordon Hayward, who was tragically injured in the first game of the season, less than five minutes into his tenure as a Celtic.
Their final acquisition was Marcus Morris, who put up 13.6 points, 5.4 rebounds, and 1.3 assists on 47/37/81 shooting.
In his second year with the Celtics, Horford made his 5th All-Star game, putting up 12.9 points, 7.4 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 1.1 blocks on 51/43/78 shooting.
In year three, Rozier played in all 80 games, averaging 25.9 minutes and putting up 11.3 points, 4.7 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 1 steal on 41/38/77 shooting.
In year two, Brown put up 14.5 points, 4.9 rebounds, 1.6 assists, and 1 steal on 51/40/64 shooting.
In his rookie year, Tatum put up 13.9 points, 5 rebounds, 1.6 assists and 1 steal on 49/43/83 shooting. On the team he was 1st in minutes, 1st in steals, 1st in 3P%, 2nd in total field goals, 2nd in total points, 2nd in free throws, 2nd in two-point makes, 2nd in total blocks, and 3rd in rebounds.
Even though Irving missed the playoffs to rehab from a surgery, the Celtics still had five guys scoring in double digits in the postseason:
Tatum: 18.5P - 4.4R - 2.7A - 1.2S, on 53/32/85 shooting
Brown: 18.0P - 4.8R - 1.4A, on 52/39/64 shooting
Rozier: 16.5P - 5.3R - 5.7A - 1.3S, on 48/35/82 shooting
Horford: 15.7P - 8.3R - 3.3A - 1.0S - 1.2B, on 60/35/83 shooting
Morris: 12.4P - 5.4R - 1.1A, on 34/42/71 shooting
They defeated Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Bucks 4-3 in the first round, Joel Embiid and the 76ers in the conference semifinals, and fell to LeBron and the Cavs (in the final season of the King James Reign of Terror in the East) in seven games after taking a 3-2 lead.
2018-19: 49-33, 4th Seed
In 2018 they drafted Robert Williams out of Texas A&M with the 27th pick.
In his return from injury, Hayward is limited to 26 minutes per game and puts up 11.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, 3.4 assists, and 0.9 steals on 54/33/83 shooting.
In his second year with Boston, Irving made his 6th All-Star game and put up 23.8 points, 5 rebounds, 6.9 assists and 1.5 steals on 53/40/87 shooting.
In Morris’s second season, he put up 13.9 points, 6.1 rebounds, and 1.5 assists on 51/38/84 shooting.
In his third year as a Celtic, Horford put up 13.6 points, 6.7 rebounds, 4.2 assists, 0.9 steals, and 1.3 blocks on 60/36/82 shooting.
In year five, Smart put up 8.9 points, 2.9 rebounds, 4.0 assists, and 1.8 steals on 51/36/81 shooting.
In year four, Rozier put up 9 points, 3.9 rebounds, 2.9 assists and 0.9 steals on 42/35/79 shooting.
In year three, Brown put up 13 points, 4.2 rebounds, 1.4 assists, and 0.9 steals on 53/34/66 shooting.
In year two, Tatum put up 15.7 points, 6 rebounds, 2.1 assists, and 1.1 steals on 48/37/86 shooting.
In the playoffs, Boston has five guys in double digits:
Kyrie — 21.3 points, 4.4 rebounds, 7.0 assists, and 1.3 steals on 42/31/90 shooting.
Tatum — 15.2 points, 6.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists, and 1.1 steals on 48/32/74 shooting.
Brown — 13.9 points, 5.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, and 0.7 steals on 64/35/77 shooting.
Horford — 13.9 points, 9.0 rebounds, 4.4 assists, and 0.8 blocks on 42/41/83 shooting.
Morris — 13.7 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 1.2 assists on 59/45/74 shooting.
They swept the Pacers, who had lost team leader Victor Oladipo, in the first round of the playoffs before falling to Antetokounmpo (in his first MVP campaign) and the Bucks in the second round.
2019-20: 48-24, 3rd Seed
In 2019 they drafted Romeo Langford out of Indiana with the 14th pick and Grant Williams out of Tennessee with the 22nd pick. Matisse Thybulle, the 20th pick out of Washington, was traded to Philadelphia. Rozier signed with Charlotte in the offseason, where he became a starter under head coach James Borrego.
In what will be forever known as the season of the Bubble, the Celtics were led by Tatum (23.4 PPG), Brown (20.3), Smart (12.9), and Hayward (17.5) along with new addition Kemba Walker (20.4). The first year with Kemba was pretty successful, all things considered, with the team finishing at 3rd in the East with 48 wins. They had the third best net rating in the league, and allowed the second fewest points per game to their opponents.
In the 2020 Orlando playoffs, the Celtics swept the 76ers, narrowly defeated the Raptors in seven games, and then lost in the conference finals to Jimmy Butler and the Miami Heat.
The Tatum-Brown-Smart-Walker group (Hayward was limited to five games) averaged a combined 81.6 points, 26.8 rebounds, 17 assists, 4.6 steals, and 2.6 blocks across 17 games in the three series.
2020-21: 36-36, 7th Seed
In 2020 they drafted Aaron Nesmith out of Vanderbilt with the 14th pick and Payton Pritchard out of Oregon with the 26th pick. Desmond Bane, 30th pick out of TCU, was traded to Memphis.
After Hayward’s departure for Charlotte (interesting trend of boys leaving Beantown, isn’t it), the Celtics slumped. They barely managed to break even, going 36-36. In the playoffs they fell to the Brooklyn Nets in five not-very-close games. The lone highlight was continued improvements from Brown and Tatum, but they still haven’t been able to figure out how to consistently make everyone around them better.
2021-22: 6-7, 10th Seed
This offseason, the Celtics brought back Horford and brought on guards Dennis Schröder and Josh Richardson—one offensive and one defensive acquisition—to try to revamp the starting lineup with new backcourt companions for Smart.
It’s true, Schröder struggled to find his place as a starter for the Lakers last season. But the year before in Oklahoma City he finished second in Sixth Man of the Year voting after putting up 19 points, 3.6 rebounds, and 4 assists on a career-best 47% field goal percentage.
Richardson similarly struggled in Dallas after being traded for Seth Curry by the Sixers. But in the previous year with Philadelphia and in his first four seasons with Miami, Richardson established himself as a defensive asset and a serviceable offensive piece. He’s only playing 24 minutes per game so far, but he has his best field goal percentage since 2017-18 and he’s taking fewer threes (which are not his strength).
One problem that the Celtics might need to deal with if they want to stick with this core of Tatum, Brown, and Smart, is to explicitly address the tension between the seven year veteran and the young star wings.
According to Sports Illustrated, Smart said after Boston’s embarrassing loss to Chicago that, "Every team knows we're trying to go to Jayson and Jaylen." He continued, "Every team is programmed and studied to stop Jayson and Jaylen. I think everybody's scouting report is to make those guys pass the ball. They don't want to pass the ball."
Clearly, even though Boston has been able to be pretty decent on defense due to several pretty outstanding athletes, they haven’t figured out how Tatum and Brown’s skills go with the team’s system on offense. Brown and Tatum have led the team in scoring in 11 of their 13 games, but they’re both assisting on fewer plays than Schröder, Smart, and Horford (Pritchard and Tatum are even at a 15.8% rate).
As Shams Charania reported during the 2020 Eastern Conference Finals in the bubble between Boston and Miami, Smart and Brown clashed in the locker room after the Celtics lost to the Heat to go down 0-2 in the series.
“Sources told The Athletic that Smart stormed into the Celtics postgame locker room saying that other players needed to be held accountable and not simply point the finger toward him when things are going wrong. As Smart continued and his voice grew louder, sources said Brown snapped back and shouted that Celtics players must stay together and that their actions must come as a team, not individually, and that Smart needed to cool off. Those sources added Smart had verbal exchanges with a couple of the assistant coaches during the game.”
Per Jared Weiss of The Athletic, Brown—who is two years older than Tatum—recently addressed the dynamic that has evolved between the three of them over their four-plus seasons together.
On the relationship, Brown said, “Yeah, we definitely have spent a lot of time with each other, which makes it good to be able to talk to somebody. But also it’s a lot of ups and downs that you go through that we’re family and things like that. I think we have healthy conversations moving forward. Like I said, the energy is just focusing on winning, that’s it.”
“I can do a lot of things better. Try to find ways to get guys going, talking to Jayson, trying to find ways to get him going. Just making our teammates better,” he said. “I think that’s part of being a leader and things like that. I still have a lot of growth to do that I’m actively working on. But that’s my challenge and I’m focusing my energy on that. Just continuing to watch film and get better and see how I can make my teammates better.”
But sometimes the Celtics have good games too! In an overtime win against the Hornets, Tatum (41-7-8) and Brown (30-6-8) combined for 71 points, 13 rebounds, and 16 assists on 26 of 48 shooting, including 9 threes. With Horford out, Udoka started Schröder and Smart in the backcourt with Brown and Tatum on the wings and Williams at center. After a close first half and getting outscored in the 3rd quarter, Boston outscored the Hornets by 12 points in the 4th quarter and overtime.
And both Tatum and Brown don’t always have to be on—in their win against Orlando on the 3rd, Tatum went just 4 for 16 and had 14 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 assists. But Brown was 10 for 17, and put up 28 points 5 rebounds, and 3 assists.
On November 4th, the Celtics had their best win of the season against the 6-2 Heat—not only did they win, but they held the team with the second-best offensive rating (113.8) to just 78 points. Even though Tatum (10-8-2) and Brown (17-5-2) combined to go 8 for 27, Boston’s defense was able to hold Miami to just 34.6% shooting.
With the chance to push their record to 5-5, the Celtics were dealt a heartbreaking loss to end an otherwise solid second half against Luka Dončić and the Mavericks. Without Brown in the lineup, Dallas was able to shoot 52.6% from the floor, and the Celtics took a while to get started out, heading to their locker room down 57-40 at halftime. But in the second half they outscored the Mavs by 14, and it would have been 17 if it weren’t for Dončić hitting his fourth career game-winner:
Long story short, the Celtics are underperforming right now. Their RAPTOR forecast (46 wins, 5th seed, 73% make playoffs), which emphasizes career player ratings when simulating outcomes, has more confidence in Boston than their ELO forecast (40 wins, 10th seed, 44% make playoffs), which gives a lot more weight to their performance so far this season. Since the loss to Dallas, Boston put up wins against Toronto (104-88) and Milwaukee (122-113 OT) before losing to Cleveland by just two points on Saturday.
If you’re a Celtics fan, there are good reasons to be optimistic about the team’s future with Tatum, Brown and Smart. If they can keep their defensive intensity up and find a way to create offense as a team and not just in isolation, this team should be able to make their presence known in the crowded East.