NBA: Warriors Homestand Preview
After a 102-86 victory on Tuesday night, Golden State has six more games at home before they hit the road again.
The Warriors, now 32-12, began their seven game homestand at Chase Center with a win against the shorthanded Pistons on Tuesday.
In the first half, the Warriors held the Pistons to just 38 points and had 10 turnovers to just eight assists on their 17 field goals. Isaiah Stewart was one of the few highlights for Detroit’s night, with 14 points and 11 rebounds including five offensive boards.
The other bright spot was a team-high 19 points and five rebounds from Rodney McGruder, but only one of those two guys is an exciting 20 year old.
But after getting outscored 33-22 in the first, the Pistons just stood by and watched the Warriors run away with the game in the second, as they pushed their lead from 11 points to 28. After that 66-38 routing in the first half, it didn’t matter that Detroit was actually able to limit Golden State to just 36 points in the second half—it was too late.
Klay Thompson led all first half scorers with 17 points in 12 minutes, followed by Steph Curry with 14 of his own plus seven assists, and the splash brothers combined for 31 points on 10-17 shooting overall and 7-12 from deep. It was excellent shooting from two guys who hadn’t exactly been getting the ball to the bottom of the basket reliably in their most recent appearances.
Kevon Looney also had nine rebounds total, with eight of them in the first quarter. That’s a man who has been going to work early and often in game after game this year, really proving that he can stick around even with Draymond threatening to take over time at center.
Golden State as a team shot 47.6% from deep and 50% overall in the first half, a major improvement on the team’s current shooting slump. They, of course, fell back to earth in the second half, going just 3-11 and 1-10 in the final two quarters of action. But they had also built up a sizable lead, so maybe we can forgive the misses. For now.
Andrew Wiggins hit 8 of his 13 attempts from the floor, and finished with 19 points. That meant that Steph (18), Klay (team high 21), and Wiggins finished with a combined 58 points on 20-37 shooting. That’s pretty great, and Steph still wasn’t anywhere near the scoring volume he’s had earlier in the season.
Plus, Jonathan Kuminga had his first career double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds in his third career start and first of the new year. And everyone is excited to have him around.
So, who comes next and what can we expect?
Indiana Pacers (16-29) — Thurs., January 20
Big man Myles Turner is out for at least two weeks, and possibly beyond the February 10th trade deadline, according to Woj. Indiana is ripe for a rebuild, or at least a rearrangement, as the duo of Turner and All-Star Domantas Sabonis has now been tried for four and a half seasons in which time the Pacers lost three first round series before missing the playoffs last year under rookie head coach Nate Bjorkgren. In the 700+ minutes that Sabonis and Turner have played together this season, the Pacers are an underwhelming +2.4 per 100 possessions.
Rick Carlisle, the 2002 Coach of the Year and one of the NBA’s longest tenured coaches when he left Dallas after 13 seasons and nine playoff appearances, returned to Indiana for a second stint at the helm. Carlisle coached the Pacers for four seasons in the mid 2000s, including the final two years of franchise legend Reggie Miller’s Hall of Fame career. In his 20 year career his teams have finished .500 or better 15 times, and this year’s Pacers are in the running to challenge the 2018 Mavericks as the least successful team he has ever coached.
Indiana is 7-13 over their last 20 games, but 2-8 in their last 10. On the season, they have an average offense and the 10th worst defense, but they’re still waiting on the debut of bubble legend T.J. Warren and star point guard Malcolm Brogdon has been dealing with an Achilles injury that has limited him to just two brief appearances in the last 14 games. In the time that Brogdon has been out, Indiana went from 12-18 to 16-29, a brutal 4-11 stretch that included their worst losing streak of the year.
But the Pacers have the potential to be at least a little scrappy—they have had a number of narrow losses, and the lone win in their last 10 games came thanks to a 42 point effort from Sabonis against the Jazz on January 8th. But with Turner out for the foreseeable future, it may be that either he or Sabonis are at the end of their time in Indiana.
The other problem is that the Pacers are coming to see the Warriors in the middle of a pretty rough streak. Indiana beat the Lakers on Wednesday to snap their four game losing streak, but now they have to play the Warriors, Suns, Pelicans, and Hornets over their subsequent four games. Ouch.
Houston Rockets (14-32) — Fri., January 21
The Warriors have faced the last-place Rockets just once this year, in an early-season matchup that saw Golden State take a 20 point lead into the fourth quarter, resulting in a 120-107 victory. That loss put Houston at 1-9, and since then they’ve gone 13-23, which is slightly better(?) but still leaves them at the bottom of the standings. They did become the first team to ever win seven games in a row after losing 15 straight, but until Wednesday’s victory over Utah that was the only time all year that they had won back to back games.
For a team that made it to two conference finals and three conference semis in a six year stretch from 2015 to 2020, it’s hard to swallow a second straight losing season after last year’s 17-55 finish. That said, another losing season will give the Rockets top lottery odds, and that’s exactly what they want to add to their talented young roster.
Of Houston’s leaders in games played, only Eric Gordon and D.J. Augustin are on the far side of 30, and one or both of them may get moved ahead of the trade deadline if it can get the Rockets another solid draft pick.
Last year’s number two overall pick, Jalen Green, has been a regular starter and is averaging 15 points per game. He’s not incredibly efficient, making just 31% of his threes and less than half of his twos, but he is incredibly athletic and has shown a lot of potential. The guy was born in 2002, so I think that’s what we should expect. He also missed 14 games in the middle of the young season, and he’s only played 13 games since returning.
Here’s how he was before and after his absence:
Pre-injury (first 18): 14.0 points, shooting 38% overall and 28% on threes
Post-injury (last 12): 15.8 points, shooting 41% overall and 35% on threes
That’s a pretty decent improvement in efficiency from beyond the arc, and it includes the brutal stretch he’s had over the last five games, connecting on just under 20% of his tries from deep. But his first seven games back after his injury were electric—he averaged 19.3 points and shot almost 45% beyond the arc—even though the Rockets still went just 1-6 in that span.
Houston also has a whole load of young guys surrounding Green, and any of them may or may not be on the team by the time the tread deadline passes. The most likely candidate is Eric Gordon, but there are a few mid- or late-twenties guys like Christian Wood, David Nwaba, and Jae’Sean Tate who might be included in a trade, and they might even be willing to part with one or two of their younger guys if it could bring a relatively young All-Star caliber player to the franchise. But ultimately it’s not clear who beyond Green is going to be a part of the team’s future, so there’s a chance for a serious shake-up to occur either before the trade deadline or in the offseason.
But for now the Rockets are just the team for NBA diehards who like watching young guys hoop, and Jalen Green, Alperen Sengün, Josh Christopher, Kenyon Martin Jr., Kevin Porter Jr., and Garrison Mathews are all pretty good at that. It’ll be interesting to see whatever they bring to the table on Friday night, and it should be a good game for the Warriors to get everyone out on the floor figuring things out. Maybe a nice Kuminga game, who knows.
Utah Jazz (29-16) — Sun., January 23
The Jazz are going to be visiting the Warriors at the beginning of a tough four games that will have them facing Golden State, Phoenix (twice), and Memphis over a span of six days. They’re also going to see the Warriors one more time before the All-Star break, and then one more time in April at the end of the season.
Utah has been an offensive juggernaut this season, with the fourth best record in the league thanks in large part to their league-leading offense. They take and make the most threes in the league, and as a team they’re knocking them down more than 36% of the time. The Jazz are scoring 116.5 points per 100 possessions, and the gap between them and the second ranked Hawks is almost as big as the gap between Atlanta and the 12th ranked Warriors.
Unfortunately for Utah, they may be without star guard Donovan Mitchell, who was placed in concussion protocols after suffering a head injury in the first half of a loss to the Lakers on Monday night. Mitchell leads the team in scoring with 25.5 points per game and has been sharing the playmaking duties with Mike Conley, who average a combined 10.5 assists per game.
Utah also has the league’s 11th ranked defense, and gives up the ninth fewest threes and the third-fewest free throws. That last statistic is thanks to star center Rudy Gobert, who is the cornerstone of their stopping capabilities. He’s currently averaging 15.7 points and 15.2 rebounds, and is on his way to an eighth straight season with two or more blocks per game. On the other side of the ball, he leads the league in shooting percentage, and he’s making almost 80% of his shots within three feet of the basket. To be fair, more than half of those are dunks, but that’s what you’re supposed to do when you’re over seven feet tall.
It will be interesting to see how Steve Kerr game-plans for Gobert on both ends of the floor, especially without Draymond available. But the Jazz’s biggest problem is their perimeter defense, and that’s what the Warriors are more than ready to exploit. It’s also why they are just 1-6 in their last seven games after losing to the Rockets without Mitchell on Wednesday night.
But regardless of that stretch, everyone should take Utah seriously. They have a core that has already had multiple successful regular seasons together, and even though that core is getting older they are still just an incredibly solid basketball team. They may not seem like a huge threat to make it out of the West, but at the very least I expect them to be a real pain in some other team’s journey through the playoffs.
Read more of my thoughts on the Jazz here.
Dallas Mavericks (26-19) — Tues., January 25
The Mavericks, after going 5-5 without franchise star Luka Dončić for 10 games, have rattled off wins in nine of their last 10 games, including a brutal handling of the Warriors on January 5th. In that matchup in Dallas, they held Golden State to just 39 points in the first half and finished them off with a 23-7 run after the Warriors closed the gap to a single point with eight and a half minutes to go in the game. Luka had 26 points, seven rebounds, and eight assists to lead all scorers but it was really the fact that the Mavs limited Golden State to just 5-28 on threes and Steph was just 1-10 in the first half that did them in.
The Warriors are really only going to be able to beat the Mavericks if they can step up their offense. They still held Dallas below 100 points, and the Mavericks only shot 30% on threes in the game, but when they don’t hit some shots of their own it’s impossible to stay in the game. Steph was just 5-24 overall and 1-9 from deep, and no one but Wiggins could get a three to drop.
The Mavs actually have the fourth best defense in the league, and they allow the seventh fewest field goal attempts per game. Luka is averaging 24.6 points, 8.6 rebounds, and 8.8 assists and at some point he’s probably going to start making more than 29% of his threes. He assists on a whopping 46% of all Mavs baskets while he’s on the court and is a truly excellent passer, and if he would just go back to taking a few more shots at the rim he might push those scoring numbers up a few points.
The current Mavs hot streak—in which they’ve won 12 of 16—has helped to keep them out of reach of the Nuggets, Timberwolves, and Lakers for the fifth seed. They aren’t exactly a real contender yet, but with Kristaps Porzingis, Jalen Brunson, Tim Hardaway Jr., and the rest of the cast playing pretty darn well, the Mavs have a good chance of at least making it out of the first round of the playoffs.
I’m not sure if this is a good thing or a bad thing, but the Mavs are going to be coming to Chase Center after hosting both the Suns and the Grizzlies, and if they lose both of those matchups they will be hungry as all hell on Tuesday.
Minnesota Timberwolves (22-23) — Thurs., January 27
The Timberwolves are 1-1 on the season against the Warriors, after getting smacked 123-110 in the beginning of the season they hit the Draymond- and Steph-less Warriors for a 119-99 tuneup.
Karl-Anthony Towns is a legitimate All-Star in the West. He may not be perfect, but the 26 year old is having one of his most efficient seasons ever despite the fact that he’s taking fewer threes and dishing the ball less than he had over the previous two years. He’s knocking down 41% of his threes, 49% of his midrange attempts, and 62% of his tries at the rim, and he’s in the 98th percentile for offensive plus/minus as the Timberwolves have a chance to make the playoffs for just the second time since 2004.
Anthony Edwards, the other number one overall pick on the roster, is having a great second year in the league. He’s still as athletic as ever, but his feel for the game has improved, leading to increased rebounding and assisting numbers. He’s also increased his efficiency, especially from deep, going from a 33% rate in his rookie campaign to nearly 38% this year. The 20 year old guard is making 41% of his corner threes, plus he’s finishing 65% within three feet of the basket. Basically, he’s improved his touch at every distance from the basket, and that’s helped open things up for the rest of the offense.
Finally, D’Angelo Russell, who looked like a bit of a bust last year in his first season with Minnesota, is averaging a career best 7.1 assists per game as the initiator of the offense. He’s having one of his worse shooting years, but he’s still making 35% of his threes and 65% of his attempts within three feet of the basket. That’s not bad, especially as Edwards has continued to improve and Malik Beasley has been a decent backup off the bench, although Beasley has also declined after a great performance last year that saw him average almost 20 points per game and shoot nearly 40% from deep.
Overall, the Timberwolves have a bottom-ten offense but a top-ten defense. They take shots at one of the highest rates in the league, but they only make about 44% of them, which is the seventh worst mark in the league. They’re also tied with the Jazz for the most threes attempted per 100 possessions, but their 34% shooting from deep is the ninth-worst in the association. They’re solid on the offensive glass, but they’re one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the league.
It’s really not clear where Minnesota’s future lies, but honestly that’s a huge improvement on what we’ve been saying about them halfway through the season for the last few years.
Brooklyn Nets (28-16) — Sat., January 29
The final game of the homestand will see the Nets come to town, with James Harden and Kyrie Irving but without Kevin Durant, who is out four to six weeks with a sprained MCL. Durant currently leads the league at 29.3 points per game—and over 15 games since the start of December he was averaging a monster 31.3 points, 7.6 rebounds, and 6.3 assists for Brooklyn.
Meanwhile, Kyrie Irving continues to refuse to get vaccinated, and doesn’t seem to believe that he owes it to his coworkers and friends to lower their risk of contracting covid. He’s still obnoxiously good at basketball, but without KD there’s got to be a lot of Irving-Harden brilliance that I just don’t think is out there. I mean for god’s sake they’re starting Kessler Edwards and Day’Ron Sharpe at the 3 and 4 right now. Who the heck are they? Well they have a combined 30 games of experience and both of them were born in or after the year 2000. So that’s where things are at for the Nets right now. Two MVPs, but one of them is out and their part-time All-Star just might not be enough to get the job done.
Kyrie had 27 points, seven rebounds, nine assists and just two turnovers on 52% shooting from the field on Monday, but they still lost to Cleveland by seven points. He did carry them to an extremely narrow victory over the Wizards with 30 points and seven assists, but they’re still just 3-2 with him on the floor. He’s no silver bullet, even though he has scored 20 or more points in four of his five games.
And what about their 12-11 record at home, where they won’t have Kyrie around? Do we end up with a starting lineup of James Harden, Patty Mills, Kessler Edwards, Day’Ron Sharpe, and LaMarcus Aldridge? Who comes off the bench in that situation? Paul Millsap has only played like 35 minutes since the beginning of December! How do you expect to maintain any sort of depth when you’re allowing someone who doesn’t protect themselves from covid spend time with the team?
Remember when there was the possibility of Brooklyn sending out a starting lineup of Harden, Irving, Durant, and then two of Joe Harris, Paul Millsap, Bruce Brown, and Nic Claxton or something like that? With Patty leading the bench mob? Those were the days.
As of this writing the Nets are still holding on to 3rd in the East with a 28-16 record, but I wouldn’t be surprised if both Cleveland and Milwaukee and perhaps even the surging 76ers are able to pass them over the coming weeks with Durant and numerous others missing games. They’re going to play the Wizards, Spurs, Timberwolves, Lakers, and Nuggets before coming to Chase Center, and then they play Phoenix, Sacramento, Utah, Denver, Boston, Washington (twice), Miami, and New York in the subsequent 10 games before the All-Star break. That’s a whole lot of games before KD is even close to returning.
Maybe they’re trying to give up home court advantage so that they can have Kyrie available for more games in the playoffs? That would be stupid, but we’ve seen weirder things happen.
I’m just glad I’m not Steve Nash right now.
Anyways.
After the homestand—looking ahead.
After these next six matchups, the Warriors will have played 50 games on the season, with 32 to go overall and nine before the All-Star break in February. They had two seven-game win streaks over their first 20 games, but since then they’ve won three in a row just twice, and after avoiding back to back losses for the first 35+ games of the season, they did it twice in the first half of January. After scoring 100 or more points in all but three of their first 36 games, the Warriors had only passed the century mark twice over their last seven contests heading into the Pistons game, and they were just 2-5 in that stretch, easily their worst of the season.
Golden State has had one of the harder schedules of the top teams, especially more recently, but they still have to face the Jazz, Mavericks, Spurs, Lakers, and Nuggets three more times apiece, plus in their final 16 games they’ll face Atlanta, Boston, Denver, Los Angeles, Memphis, Miami, Milwaukee, Phoenix, Utah, and Washington. That’s not going to be easy, but they also have a good chunk of games between now and then to get in shape for a playoff push.
The Warriors still have the best defensive rating in the league, but their offense has slipped out of the top ten for the first time this season. Over their first 30 games they were scoring just under 113 points per 100 possessions, which would be a top-five offense right now. But in the 13 games leading into the homestand, they had a worse net rating than the 24th ranked Lakers, scoring just 108.4 points per 100 possessions.
The reason why is pretty obvious—over the first 30 games, Steph played 28 of them and averaged 27 points while shooting just below 40% from deep. Since then, he’s scoring just 24.5 points per game and shooting a paltry 34% on threes, which is almost 10% worse than his historic 43% career average. That’s just not the Steph Curry we’re used to seeing.
But we have to figure that the more time this team gets to play together, the better things are going to go. They’ve still been putting together pretty solid defensive games (aside from Milwaukee) despite the guys missing, and their offense is going to start to pick up as everyone gets time to figure out what it’s like playing with Klay on the floor. That’s not something you can expect everyone to figure out immediately, especially with a team that is so clearly chemistry dependent like the Warriors.
If you don’t know how to play off of a guy because you haven’t gotten to see up close what kinds of moves he likes to make, then it’s going to be a lot harder to get the offense to run. That’s why it has been incredibly reassuring to get to see some classic Klay motions happening lately, with the guys around him starting to figure out how to plan for his abilities when they’re on the floor with him. The more time they get between now and the end of the season with a fully healthy roster, the better that feel will get and the more intuitive the offense will be. That’s when the fun really starts.
Read More:
It’s easy to forget, but when Steph isn’t slumping he’s the best show in the world.